FINANCIAL RESILIENCE OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF UKRAINE: REGIONAL CLUSTERING, FINANCIAL PROFILING AND INTEGRAL INDEX
Abstract
The article proposes a comprehensive approach to assessing the financial resilience of the agricultural sector of Ukraine that integrates three analytical levels: regional clustering based on production core indicators, financial profiling of the identified clusters, and an integral index. A baseline typology of 23 Ukrainian oblasts was constructed using the K-Means method with three production indices for 2025 (total agricultural output, crop production, and livestock production), while financial profiling was carried out through operating profitability, the share of loss-making enterprises, the volume of bank lending to agricultural corporations, and the share of long-term loans. On the basis of normalized variables, a micro-financial index of regional resilience was calculated, enabling a comparative evaluation of financial sustainability across clusters. The results indicate that regions demonstrating the highest level of production recovery do not necessarily exhibit the strongest financial performance. In particular, the recovery cluster shows the highest average production index, whereas the financially balanced cluster demonstrates superior financial parameters, including higher profitability and more stable credit support. This provides grounds to suggest the presence of asynchrony between production recovery and financial recovery processes. In addition, a vulnerable frontline type, characterized by limited financial capacity despite partial preservation of production potential, and a critically destructured type with severe losses in both production and financial dimensions were identified. Furthermore, a macro-level integral index of financial resilience for 2016–2025 was calculated, capturing a systemic decline in 2022 followed by only partial recovery in subsequent years. The findings highlight the limitations of uniform policy approaches and support the relevance of more differentiated financial support instruments that take into account regional heterogeneity, varying recovery trajectories, and differences in financial capacity across regions.
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