ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF UKRAINE: MACRO-LEVEL AND QUALITY MODELING AT ENTERPRISES UNDER TRANSFORMATION
Abstract
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of human capital (HC) within Ukraine's transforming economic system, examining both the macro (national) and micro (enterprise) levels. The study's relevance is amplified by the profound challenges of transformation, the digital revolution, and significant migration flows, which necessitate a re-evaluation of HC and its reproduction mechanisms. The research aims to analyze the state and dynamics of HC in Ukraine at the macro level and to substantiate a model for assessing its quality at the micro level under modern economic transformations. Theoretically, the study builds on the foundations of HC theory established by Becker and Schultz, defining HC as an investment-formed stock of health, knowledge, skills, and motivations. It distinguishes HC from 'personnel' by its qualitative attributes (education, experience) and acknowledges its formation across household, corporate, and state levels. Methodologically, the research employed statistical analysis of official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Pension Fund , and international reports (Global Innovation Index, PISA, IOM). A comparative approach was used for macro-level trends. For the micro-level analysis, a regression model was constructed, modifying Mincer's model, using Eurostat data from 20 medium-sized EU machine-building enterprises for 2023. Macro-level analysis revealed contradictory and largely negative trends. Despite steady nominal wage growth , the economically active population has consistently declined (from 21.1 million in 2000 to 16.7 million in 2021). The demographic situation, already strained (population fell 10.5% from 2010-2022), was drastically altered in 2022. IOM data showed 13.7 million displaced persons, with 5.7 million leaving Ukraine by May 2022, including an estimated 2.5 million students and 22,000 teachers. This mass exodus poses a severe threat of losing a significant share of young HC. Concurrently, life expectancy has fallen, and the quality of education has deteriorated, as evidenced by significant declines in PISA-2022 scores for math, science, and reading. Ukraine's HC sub-index in the Global Innovation Index plummeted from 40.8 (2016) to 35.6 (2023), driven by a collapse in 'Research and Development' metrics, indicating a severe 'brain drain'. Conclusions highlight an urgent need for a state strategy to preserve and develop HC. While nominal wages have risen, the macro-level picture is one of HC degradation. The micro-model confirms that for enterprises, investment in digital skills and modern strategies to prevent burnout is critical. Key strategic directions must include substantial investment in education and health, creating conditions for innovation, and stimulating the return of migrants. Future research should focus on modeling the marketing of values and adaptive corporate culture.
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