CRITICAL CONVERGENCE AS A POST-SINGULAR PHENOMENON: FORMALIZATION, ECONOMIC EFFECTS, AND METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES OF FORECASTING

Abstract

The article proposes a conceptual and formal distinction between the phenomena of integrated singularity and critical convergence. Integrated singularity is considered as a bifurcation point (somewhat extended in time) at which technological, demographic, resource, and political singularities reach critical thresholds. Critical convergence is defined as a post-singularity process of resonant superposition of migration, demographic, economic, technological, and political transformations. A mathematical formalization of critical convergence is proposed through a nonlinear function that accounts for both additive and multiplicative (resonant) contributions of factors. An economic model of the impact of critical convergence on GDP dynamics is developed. Based on the analysis of three historical precedents (the COVID-19 pandemic, the Iran war, and the Russian-Ukrainian war), the hypothesis is substantiated that these events are not anomalies but harbingers of a reality in which critical convergence will become a systemic characteristic. An alternative methodological approach to forecasting is proposed, based on scenario analysis, complex network theory, and weak signal monitoring. A scenario-based hypothesis about the potential advantage of Ukraine as a "second wave" country in the context of critical convergence is substantiated.