INTEGRAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF TRADE ENTERPRISES

Abstract

Risk assessment of trade enterprises is an integral component of effective management and strategic planning, as it enables the timely identification of threats, determination of their impact on performance outcomes, and development of measures to minimize negative consequences. The article examines methodological approaches to risk assessment using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, which makes it possible to establish cause-and-effect relationships of risks and numerically determine the degree of their influence on enterprise functioning. A three-level scoring system for risk evaluation («high», «moderate», «low») is proposed, ensuring universality, comparability of heterogeneous indicators, simplification of result interpretation, and formation of an integrated risk indicator for comprehensive enterprise activity analysis. Based on financial reporting data, the study analyzed the risks of leading Ukrainian retail chains – ATB, NOVUS, Silpo, and FORA – across operational, financial, market, and strategic dimensions. The analysis revealed that ATB-MARKET LLC remains the leader in operational stability but faces increasing strategic risks. NOVUS Ukraine LLC demonstrates adaptability and a gradual reduction in market risks. Silpo-Food LLC maintains financial stability, though 2023 saw a rise in market and strategic risks. FORA LLC shows the weakest dynamics in integrated risk, particularly in operational and strategic aspects. The study results make it possible to identify critical risk zones and develop short- and long-term strategies for their mitigation, including the automation and optimization of operational processes, diversification of financing, development of marketing and digital tools, investment in business model modernization, and implementation of early warning systems for crisis situations. The practical significance of the research lies in the potential for direct application of the proposed methodology within the system of strategic and operational management of trade enterprises, enhancing their competitiveness and adaptability in an unstable market environment.