FORMATION OF A METHODOLOGY FOR SYSTEMATIC ASSESSMENT OF INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF MILITARY INSTABILITY AND POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE
Abstract
The article substantiates the need to develop a systematic methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of public-private partnership projects under conditions of military instability and Ukraine’s post-war recovery. It is demonstrated that traditional approaches to investment analysis, focused mainly on financial payback indicators, do not allow for a comprehensive assessment of the feasibility of implementing PPP projects under conditions of high security, fiscal, legal, and institutional risks. The article emphasizes that the investment attractiveness of such projects should be determined not only by NPV, IRR, or payback period, but also by their ability to deliver socially significant outcomes, ensure continuity of service provision, provide an acceptable allocation of risks, maintain fiscal balance, and demonstrate resilience to military shocks. The study takes into account the current legislation of Ukraine in the field of public-private partnership, in particular the legislative model of PPP preparation, which provides for the development of a concept note and a feasibility study. It is substantiated that the methodology for assessing investment attractiveness should be integrated specifically into the PPP preparation cycle and should perform the function of a preliminary “quality filter” to prevent projects with an unacceptable level of risk from proceeding to the tender stage. A multi-criteria assessment approach is proposed, combining legal admissibility, strategic alignment, financial viability, fiscal affordability, wartime risk resilience, institutional capacity, integrity of participants, and ESG criteria. A sequence of assessment stages has been developed, covering preliminary screening, legal diagnostics, analysis of social and economic feasibility, financial and investment modelling, assessment of risks, public support, compliance, the ESG component, and the integral index. The practical significance of the proposed approach lies in the possibility of comparing PPP projects with each other, determining their priority, identifying weaknesses at the early stages of preparation, and forming well-grounded decisions on the feasibility of their implementation under conditions of wartime uncertainty.
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