TREND ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS OF UKRAINE AND WAYS TO IMPROVE THEM

Abstract

The article analyzes the state and trends of Ukraine's macroeconomic indicators during 2021-2024. It was found that Ukraine's gross domestic product demonstrated positive dynamics of post-covid recovery of economic activity in 2021, however, in 2022, even despite a significant increase in prices, the gross domestic product decreased significantly, and in 2023-2024 it grew. The authors analyzed changes in the distribution of Ukrainian state budget expenditures, noted a key feature, which is a significant increase in defense expenditures (from 8.56% in 2021 to more than 50% in 2023-2024). The budget deficit increased (from 3.63% of GDP in 2021 to 17.74% of GDP in 2024). The authors noted the high growth rates of Ukraine's state and state-guaranteed debt during the period under study, especially external. Ukraine's state debt increased from 48.9% of nominal GDP in 2021 to 91.2% of nominal GDP in 2024, which indicates a difficult situation with the level of financial security of Ukraine. Ukraine's foreign trade balance of goods and services also significantly deteriorated. The authors substantiated that the negative trends in Ukraine's macroeconomic indicators are due to the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine, the occupation of part of its territories, the destruction caused, the large needs for financing defense capabilities and ensuring people's living conditions. At the same time, it was noted that the Ukrainian economy demonstrated resilience and ability to defend itself. The key factor for improving Ukraine's macroeconomic indicators is the elimination of the destabilizing impact of the war, i.e. its end by military, diplomatic, and economic means. The authors substantiate a number of proposals for improving macroeconomic indicators (stimulating economic growth through investments; stimulating the development of economic sectors, developing public-private partnerships; optimizing budget policy, eliminating "loss zones"; restructuring external debt, expanding grant financing programs; integration into European production chains, certification, product standardization; fair operation of the judicial system and anti-corruption bodies; programs for the return of specialists and stimulating youth employment, developing remote work, supporting educational projects). The combination of anti-crisis measures (reducing the deficit, effective debt management, controlling inflation) with structural reforms (institutional, investment, and European integration) will create the basis for macro-financial stability, sustainable economic growth, meeting social needs, etc.